Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16980

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16979, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16980
    01 Nov 2026, 04:33 UTC

    PRPF40A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRPF40A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73ff072441743e9c

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6ee546b3c03b26420aa3174…
    follows 10da049ca853…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16980: PRPF40A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRPF40A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.