Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16976

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16975, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16976
    01 Nov 2026, 04:28 UTC

    NXT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNXT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered080e33287c03b6eb

    discovery-0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f90c8636edda11bd3f8ede7…
    follows 3c602d808314…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16976: NXT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NXT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.