Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16974

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0084; held-out +0.16 p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16973, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16974
    01 Nov 2026, 04:25 UTC

    RALGPS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRALGPS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5a33a5546e65d3d2

    discovery+0.81 p=0.0084 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0084; held-out +0.16 p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    3d1a0bdc23ed2166e7c42f64…
    follows bb6d18699ae4…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16974: RALGPS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.64, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RALGPS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.