Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16967

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16966, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16967
    01 Nov 2026, 04:17 UTC

    KHDRBS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKHDRBS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered26132bce0f104f47

    discovery+0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a030ce524cf95ea6311ee44…
    follows 8fec385eca1e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16967: KHDRBS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KHDRBS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.