Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16955

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16954, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16955
    01 Nov 2026, 04:03 UTC

    SHISA5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSHISA5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered807c8b4d3eba6078

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.060 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b8a43608041407d2475f3d7…
    follows 3307ef57ad92…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16955: SHISA5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SHISA5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.