Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16949

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16948, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16949
    01 Nov 2026, 03:55 UTC

    PEX11A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPEX11A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda80b171d2f9ebe09

    discovery+0.07 p=0.856 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.250 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76cdfddde29730fec7210fc3…
    follows 8d4543ee36e4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16949: PEX11A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PEX11A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.