Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16937

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16936, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16937
    01 Nov 2026, 03:38 UTC

    PHOSPHO1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHOSPHO1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb65db14a92b8cf50

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.73 p=0.027 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7f510e1965399606f636fe89…
    follows 7a3c0635a326…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16937: PHOSPHO1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHOSPHO1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.