Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16933

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16932, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16933
    01 Nov 2026, 03:33 UTC

    PNISR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNISR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b7ff60c286c230c

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f7c4b1bead31cb9fdda4cc82…
    follows d49f4fde4f61…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16933: PNISR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18) vs +0.16 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNISR in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PNISR · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.60 p 0.033 (needs p < 1.4e-4)