Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16930
    01 Nov 2026, 03:30 UTC

    PLLP

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPLLP in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15526bc698a1461b

    discovery+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e310bad70afc46c0d38a8e41…
    follows 1844d0f4e068…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16930: PLLP in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLLP in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.