Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16918

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.299). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16917, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16918
    01 Nov 2026, 03:16 UTC

    LMTK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLMTK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1e6f7cb99416018

    discovery-0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.299)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3823a88025c7fffd7ecf7118…
    follows 9a1da25af5b2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16918: LMTK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18) vs -0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMTK3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LMTK3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 1.4e-4)