Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16909

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.65, p 0.059). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16908, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16909
    01 Nov 2026, 03:02 UTC

    HPGD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHPGD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaafe8535f123a904

    discovery+0.65 p=0.059 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.65, p 0.059)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d9e61dc988623d7f7bcabce…
    follows 41338a6ca582…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16909: HPGD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HPGD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.