Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16907

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16906, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16907
    01 Nov 2026, 02:59 UTC

    TCERG1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTCERG1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9967f0e920a03fa1

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87c53a97bfc96e8c8fd25295…
    follows bdb666da240f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16907: TCERG1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCERG1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.