Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16905

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16904, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16905
    01 Nov 2026, 02:57 UTC

    TTBK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTBK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56c598da272ac243

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    72a7fe436b34e867d02d88c7…
    follows 405d4330ca96…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16905: TTBK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.09, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTBK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.