Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16901

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16900, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16901
    01 Nov 2026, 02:51 UTC

    TFCP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTFCP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd219e7b2d78964bb

    discovery-0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52ce2378217e14b5e9b0dd7b…
    follows 523df6275e32…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16901: TFCP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TFCP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.