Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16897

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16896, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16897
    01 Nov 2026, 02:46 UTC

    GLP2R

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGLP2R in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb24429befe5c4e4

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee1eb0c77bbfa2c70070727f…
    follows bec1be72533f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16897: GLP2R in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLP2R in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.