Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16893

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.371). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16892, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16893
    01 Nov 2026, 02:39 UTC

    UGT1A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUGT1A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredede7d5d5f23b0edd

    discovery+0.34 p=0.371 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.371)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b0fb52aed48ab0cdc90595f8…
    follows 14c31d532bba…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16893: UGT1A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI +0.02 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UGT1A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.