Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16887

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16886, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16887
    01 Nov 2026, 02:33 UTC

    C11orf58

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC11orf58 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered21d5a928042856e4

    discovery+0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    33a6967a4b8d51f58189d609…
    follows fd62eb4dd0f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16887: C11orf58 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C11orf58 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.