Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16851

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16850, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16851
    01 Nov 2026, 02:26 UTC

    GPSM2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGPSM2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfb8557043f55d638

    discovery-0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    replication+0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6be183c7f7c8dbff7c2e927e…
    follows 9fd5a267cae8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16851: GPSM2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPSM2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.