Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16847

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16846, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16847
    01 Nov 2026, 02:20 UTC

    C6orf58

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC6orf58 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede486742ee7469614

    discovery+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    45c7927020ddfca682cd1634…
    follows b4b22063b360…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16847: C6orf58 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C6orf58 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.