Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16816

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.152). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16815, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16816
    01 Nov 2026, 01:41 UTC

    RRAS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRRAS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc86073a1eeef9be5

    discovery-0.52 p=0.152 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.152)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf67f8a6e82ec6cadc17b9c5…
    follows c700cff7452b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16816: RRAS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs -0.15 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RRAS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.