Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16809

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16808, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16809
    01 Nov 2026, 01:33 UTC

    DBNDD2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDBNDD2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered049ee9a2d02b5b3f

    discovery-0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9f6c3a679c8bd474dcb768f7…
    follows 8bcebf38ef18…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16809: DBNDD2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.22, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DBNDD2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.