Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16799

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16798, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16799
    01 Nov 2026, 01:19 UTC

    RNF114

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF114 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f44db5f92a23a05

    discovery-0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5acc8196ec5bf5f72b548000…
    follows f0ea214dc12d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16799: RNF114 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF114 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.