Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16785

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16784, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16785
    01 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC

    DUSP18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUSP18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfa20befe70c22201

    discovery-0.29 p=0.442 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    35f3e959b8015ccadb33c9a7…
    follows ff9dca27dedc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16785: DUSP18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUSP18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.