Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16772

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16771, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16772
    01 Nov 2026, 00:44 UTC

    OR4C3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR4C3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2bb7b416b4608ec0

    discovery+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e80b02e451b5bf3efb11b7c…
    follows 14a01a9add83…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16772: OR4C3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR4C3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.