Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16770

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16769, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16770
    01 Nov 2026, 00:41 UTC

    LAPTM5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLAPTM5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f82f96d80b6dc2f

    discovery+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8364cd8a52b1721f51de826d…
    follows ecd6854b87ca…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16770: LAPTM5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LAPTM5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.