Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16768

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16767, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16768
    01 Nov 2026, 00:38 UTC

    PRDM12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRDM12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd5a145de702e426f

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b6052c4faf251224cf2be468…
    follows cc31a1d14682…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16768: PRDM12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRDM12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.