Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16762

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16761, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16762
    01 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC

    NCAPD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCAPD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4607167102580784

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    db2dc7babfe1967818de191d…
    follows 066b709a0d29…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16762: NCAPD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAPD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.