Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16760

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16759, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16760
    01 Nov 2026, 00:27 UTC

    KDELR3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKDELR3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf814f1345d0433f7

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    19a7c5fe26d72b26eed78e1b…
    follows 86e611b3b0a7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16760: KDELR3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KDELR3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.