Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16754

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16753, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16754
    01 Nov 2026, 00:19 UTC

    WASHC5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWASHC5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8aed06f90a21d94e

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.050 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7de2bf5570c72a03ee775347…
    follows 48f8596ac59f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16754: WASHC5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WASHC5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.