Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16747

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16746, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16747
    01 Nov 2026, 00:11 UTC

    RMND1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRMND1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaeb4f8a35918d3d4

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bad4e9b1a24f44e81d31f09c…
    follows b1206485cb37…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16747: RMND1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RMND1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.