Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16739

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16738, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16739
    01 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

    CPNE9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPNE9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3076d98a34ec0a0

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a14e66105270a1c95723bca…
    follows 6a89895ecb7b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16739: CPNE9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPNE9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.