Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16737

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16736, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16737
    31 Oct 2026, 23:57 UTC

    OR7A5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR7A5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered67f201af78d84205

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67b24ed3d432b93468b87670…
    follows eb60fc347da8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16737: OR7A5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI +0.00 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.40 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR7A5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.