Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16735

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.389). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16734, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16735
    31 Oct 2026, 23:54 UTC

    MRS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ed76135043ac382

    discovery+0.33 p=0.389 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.389)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    99292558074240ba22f826b5…
    follows 4338f7d74d4e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16735: MRS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.10, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRS2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MRS2 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.4e-4)