Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1672

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1671, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1672
    18 Oct 2026, 03:42 UTC

    CACNB1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCACNB1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf76dc9e5fb283a03

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    74676ff5e2c927ae247076c2…
    follows abdcfba3ec33…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1672: CACNB1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CACNB1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.