Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16719

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16718, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16719
    31 Oct 2026, 23:32 UTC

    CHI3L2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHI3L2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe3c1f0982506425

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a4965241d5285b5e4b7f7d0…
    follows 7644bbefce84…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16719: CHI3L2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.10, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHI3L2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.