Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16717

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16716, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16717
    31 Oct 2026, 23:29 UTC

    ASPG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionASPG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredead621ceb7b4d34d

    discovery-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7322d1e2477eeb8e4a90a557…
    follows 697839abae5f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16717: ASPG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASPG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.