Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16715

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16714, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16715
    31 Oct 2026, 23:27 UTC

    XYLT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionXYLT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered069eb86330aef33b

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    914ebcf9c80e73bc8c862b53…
    follows a46bc0d0d3f7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16715: XYLT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.78 (p 1.3e-4, n 18) vs -0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XYLT2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up XYLT2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 1.4e-4)