Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16713

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16712, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16713
    31 Oct 2026, 23:24 UTC

    RAD18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAD18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered14a2531fde560cf6

    discovery-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8c9098645534748ef94e478…
    follows 1a4dc0653f17…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16713: RAD18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAD18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.