Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16698

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16697, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16698
    31 Oct 2026, 23:07 UTC

    DOCK4

    microglia, braak

    predictionDOCK4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6ad223ec5c062188

    discovery+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5e7240912003403d83b7d7fa…
    follows 3833e7c2da6f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16698: DOCK4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.