Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16689

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.886). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16688, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16689
    31 Oct 2026, 22:54 UTC

    ALDOB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALDOB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb33b5596619efa40

    discovery+0.06 p=0.886 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.886)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4558a394f273cf0ce1b3598c…
    follows 819a0d8bb403…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16689: ALDOB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALDOB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.