Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16687

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16686, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16687
    31 Oct 2026, 22:51 UTC

    IER2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIER2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda7d9a95658c66b72

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    532accbba9e1d1fb55bc8fa7…
    follows 39aec93b9ea8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16687: IER2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IER2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.