Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16685

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16684, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16685
    31 Oct 2026, 22:48 UTC

    VWA5B2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVWA5B2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6c1bda6f16dceafa

    discovery-0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.133)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bca0083eac7a27c9e97de956…
    follows 46bb3d1eefc8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16685: VWA5B2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VWA5B2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.