Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16669

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.563). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16668, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16669
    31 Oct 2026, 22:26 UTC

    SLC6A13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC6A13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda4b7d1c533c4a9b4

    discovery-0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.563)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    97f50eff74aa259b560f1118…
    follows d6de8bab4146…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16669: SLC6A13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC6A13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.