Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16667

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16666, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16667
    31 Oct 2026, 22:23 UTC

    METAP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMETAP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52a619c8cd3d9a62

    discovery-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.720 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7972663da4ee7e1d17fd9ea5…
    follows cb030d10f056…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16667: METAP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for METAP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.