Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16660

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16659, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16660
    31 Oct 2026, 22:15 UTC

    F9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionF9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered23d0cde3698a41a8

    discovery+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1ff68e5704ffcfcd9c22ca2…
    follows 658779f8abfa…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16660: F9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for F9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.