Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16650

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16649, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16650
    31 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC

    PRKAG3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRKAG3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ca6bc101b8998df

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c052767d64d47c8566f2f8c…
    follows 0a21abe9524d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16650: PRKAG3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKAG3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.