Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16637

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16636, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16637
    31 Oct 2026, 21:42 UTC

    EFCAB13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEFCAB13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda861b6603d3e922a

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fa477edaef5a05bc8e1cd9b7…
    follows 2f2588af5e70…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16637: EFCAB13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.64 (p 0.0042, n 18) vs +0.35 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFCAB13 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up EFCAB13 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.70 p 0.013 (needs p < 1.4e-4)