Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16608

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16607, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16608
    31 Oct 2026, 21:06 UTC

    ZNF683

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF683 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede30f5bb87b77e350

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a53637c1c267d2210851f301…
    follows 1d753610d442…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16608: ZNF683 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF683 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.