Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1660

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1659, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1660
    18 Oct 2026, 03:23 UTC

    MMP26

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMMP26 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e8134bf6ea2fc1a

    discovery+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication+0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aff7d08d71ce4943d9f5a46c…
    follows 72195b58464b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1660: MMP26 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MMP26 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.