Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16592

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.341). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16591, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16592
    31 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC

    SPC24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPC24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2a6f3c9e627456ca

    discovery-0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.341)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22d3f974bb1cce7dc7def344…
    follows 3705d8360c33…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16592: SPC24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.02, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPC24 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.